Why fuel costs are rising, and how your household can prepare

Energy Response Technical Working Group | By TWG Chair Joaquin Vespignani

8 October 2026 (CKT)

Kia orana. Many of you will have noticed fuel prices creeping up. This article explains what is happening overseas, why diesel in particular is under pressure, and some simple steps families and businesses can take now.

The short version: fuel is still arriving in the Cook Islands and shipments are scheduled. There is no need to stockpile. But global fuel prices are high and likely to stay high into 2027, so it makes sense to plan ahead and use fuel wisely.

What is happening overseas?

The world is not short of crude oil. It is short of refineries able to turn that oil into diesel, petrol and jet fuel. According to the International Energy Agency, the world’s refineries produced about 4.2 million barrels a day less in August than a year earlier.

Several things are behind this. The conflict involving Iran has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, the main shipping route out of the Gulf, for much of this year. Refineries in Russia have been damaged, and Russia and China have both limited how much fuel they sell overseas. Refineries in other countries, such as the United States, are already running close to full capacity and cannot easily make up the gap.

Before these disruptions, the Gulf and Russia together supplied almost half of the diesel shipped around the world by sea. With both affected at once, there is very little spare diesel for everyone else.

How much have prices moved?

World oil prices reached about US$105 a barrel in late September, around 50% higher than a year ago. Refined fuels have risen even faster.

Fuel	Price change in one year	What drives it
Crude oil	about +50%	Middle East conflict, Hormuz disruption
Diesel	more than doubled	Refinery damage, export bans
Jet fuel	about +90%	Same refining process as diesel
Petrol	rising, but more slowly	Less affected refining stream

Based on international wholesale price data to late September 2026.

Our neighbours are feeling it too. Most Pacific countries, including the Cook Islands, buy fuel from Singapore through Fiji. Fiji and Samoa both raised diesel prices on 1 September, and further increases across the region are likely in October.

Why does diesel matter so much here?

Diesel is the fuel our islands run on. It generates most of our electricity on Rarotonga and in the Pa Enua. It powers delivery trucks, fishing boats, inter-island ships and building machinery. When diesel gets dearer, the cost of power, freight and many imported goods tends to follow.

Jet fuel matters too. It is now about 90% more expensive than last year, and airlines may pass some of that cost on through fares. That could affect visitor numbers, which hit a record of 21,728 arrivals in July.

How long will this last?

Even if the conflicts ease soon, damaged refineries take months to repair. International forecasters expect diesel supplies to stay tight into 2027. Prices would likely fall if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens or if Russia and Ukraine agree to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities. Talks on both are under way, but neither has been agreed.

What is the Government doing?

• Monitoring supply. The Energy Response Technical Working Group tracks fuel stocks and shipments across all islands every week. The current response phase is Prepare, which means supply is being actively managed but there is no shortage.

• Cook’s Buses. Free public transport on Rarotonga continues, with the second monthly payment made to support the service.

• Household support. The second Temporary Household Support Payment reached beneficiaries in mid-September.

What can you do?

• Buy fuel as normal. Please don’t stockpile. Buying more than you need puts pressure on supply for everyone, especially on the outer islands.

• Take the bus. Cook’s Buses are free on Rarotonga for residents. Leaving the car at home a few days a week saves you money.

• Plan your trips. Combine errands into one outing, share rides, and switch the engine off instead of idling.

• Save power in the afternoon and evening. Set air-conditioning to 24–25°C, switch off appliances at the wall, and run washing machines and water heaters outside peak times. Less electricity demand means less diesel burned.

• Businesses: review your costs. If you rely on diesel for vehicles, boats or generators, plan for fuel costs staying high into next year.

• Pa Enua: plan ahead. Where shipping schedules allow, order fuel early and work with your Island Government on local arrangements.

Stay informed

Fuel stock updates are published on the Ministry of Finance and Economic Management website every Monday morning under “C.I Energy Update”. Please rely on official updates rather than rumours on social media.

The situation overseas is serious, but our supply is being managed carefully. Small changes in how each of us uses fuel and power, added up across our islands, make a real difference. Meitaki ma’ata.

END.

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